My preview of UFC 158: St. Pierre vs. Diaz, which features two awesome fights and a bunch of other stuff.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Nick Diaz: Stylistically, this is a perfect fight for St. Pierre. Diaz is a volume striker with almost no defense, weak takedown defense, and an active grappler with no chance of submitting GSP. If GSP wants to stand with Diaz, he can likely outstrike him the same way Carlos Condit did, which is by using a lot of movement and frustrating Diaz with quick kicks and jabs. The guys who Diaz beats up on the feet are guys who stand in front of him and can’t handle his pace. GSP isn’t going to stand in front of him and he won’t allow him to establish his typical pace. And for some reason, if Diaz is able to get the better of the striking exchanges, GSP will change levels and have little trouble putting Diaz on his back. Even though Diaz has an active guard, it’s highly unlikely that he submits someone with the defensive knowledge of St. Pierre. In fact, Diaz’s active guard will just lead to St. Pierre briefly passing before Diaz regains full guard and the process is repeated. GSP won’t just lay on Diaz either, which is the popular opinion on what he seems to do, he’ll beat him up the same way he beat up Condit. He’ll use elbows, posture up and rain down punches, and possibly throw some knees to the body if given the chance. While Diaz isn’t in the head of St. Pierre, like I’m sure some will claim, it’s clear that GSP finds Diaz disrespectful and has a certain disdain for him, which puts Diaz in the Matt Serra and BJ Penn category. I’m not saying GSP will finish Diaz, but I do think he’ll put a beating on him. He won’t finish him though, maybe not for a lack of trying, but because Diaz is extremely durable and has cardio for days. I do think he’ll bust and cut Diaz up pretty badly though en route to a five round domination.
Prediction: St. Pierre, Decision
Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks: I’m not as high on Hendricks as a lot of people are, but there’s no denying his resumé. And if he catches Condit with either hand, he could definitely put him down and out. But Condit isn’t the same fighter that he used to be. He’s not going to get into a firefight with Hendricks, because that’s potentially a losing battle. I think he’ll get on his bike and keep Hendricks at bay with kicks, picking his shots when he needs to. Even though Hendricks has a ton of power, he doesn’t exactly set up things well, usually just moving forward and throwing. Condit isn’t above being hit though, and while his chin is good, he doesn’t want to eat a Hendricks left. Hendricks will be hyped as this amazing wrestler, and his amateur credentials speak from themselves, but it hasn’t translated to MMA. Condit doesn’t have great takedown defense, but if he does end up on his back, he does have great sweeps and is active with elbows. Don’t be shocked if Condit puts Hendricks on his back either. He has solid trips from the clinch, and as mentioned, his sweeps lead him to gaining a dominate position. And if Condit is on top, he’ll put a beating on Hendricks, who is rather defenseless on his back. The clinch will be an interesting position in this fight given Hendrick’s compact build and Condit’s lankiness. Condit might be able to do a lot of damage in the clinch with knees. In fact, I think Condit hurts Hendricks with a knee late in the fight, leading to a submission or stoppage by strikes victory.
Prediction: Condit, Submission, Round 3
Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt: This is a good fight that I just can’t seem to get excited for thanks in large part due to Marquardt’s terrible performance in the final Strikeforce fight. Even though I think Marquardt might be the better and more well-rounded fighter, I can’t feel confident in picking him given the number of eggs he’s laid over the course of his career. Ellenberger has heavy hands and is one of the better counter punchers in the division. Marquardt’s best asset is his aggressiveness, but if he gets aggressive against Ellenberger, he runs the risk of eating a big right hand. Ellenberger is the better wrestler, but Marquardt’s takedown defense is good and I don’t think Ellenberger will be able to get him down, which could lead to a lot of stalemate clinch situations. If Marquardt shows up to fight, he could definitely win with his aggressiveness, but I just can’t trust him right now. I don’t think this fight will be pretty, but I do think Ellenberger will do enough to have his hand raised.
Prediction: Ellenberger, Decision
Chris Camozzi vs. Nick Ring: It seemed like Ring had a good amount of talent, but then he got injured and still doesn’t seem fully recovered. Camozzi is just a guy who was cut a few years ago, returned, lost, but has since put together a decent little streak. I except this to be contested on the feet with both guys getting their licks in and no one giving a lick about them. I’m going with Camozzi just because I think he’s the more polished fighter and if he’s losing the striking battle, can potentially put Ring on his back.
Prediction: Camozzi, Decision
Mike Ricci vs. Colin Fletcher: It’s a battle of Ultimate Fighter losers. If that doesn’t get you excited then I don’t know what will. Fletcher is a good grappler with not much stand up and Ricci is just a guy who is only in this position because Rory MacDonald threatened UFC management. I think Ricci will be able to keep the fight standing and get the better of the minimal exchanges while we all wonder why exactly these two guys have a job in the UFC.
Prediction: Ricci, Decision
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